Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.2 – 189.82

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 723.4 ±11.4

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 126.2Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 116.57Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 117.43Rank 49Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579 ±10.4

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 52.96Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 19.43Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 117.43Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7287, 238, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.2 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7287, 238, 2607

Auto

58.7 17%

Teleop

198.0 56%

Endgame

98.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2834, 2383, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2834, 2383, 9692

Auto

30.1 16%

Teleop

96.2 51%

Endgame

62.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score360.2pts

Blue projected score189.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.4
Score range: 119–431
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 395.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

723.4Season APEX579

58.7Auto30.1

198Teleop96.2

98.9Endgame62.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	72
teleop	102	122
endgame	92	79
foul	65	0
total	335	273

Result

Final score

335 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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