Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.75 – 297.85

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

532 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 184.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 826.9 ±11.2

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 152Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 105.61Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 131.14Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 843.5 ±8.7

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 82.75Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 114.81Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 100.29Rank 70Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 11118, 1986

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3641, 11118, 1986

Auto

79.7 21%

Teleop

241.6 62%

Endgame

65.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3015, 4201, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.9 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3015, 4201, 6152

Auto

68.5 24%

Teleop

135.7 47%

Endgame

85.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score388.8pts

Blue projected score297.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.9
Score range: 228–459
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1056 vs event baseline 386.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

826.9Season APEX843.5

79.7Auto68.5

241.6Teleop135.7

65.9Endgame85.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	107
teleop	345	314
endgame	68	98
foul	0	5
total	532	524

Result

Final score

532 – 524

Prediction correct · off by 184.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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