Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

251.43 – 340.83

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 122.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.4 ±10.5

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 111.43Rank 48Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 106.93Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 33.07Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 820.9 ±9.3

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 62.2Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 158.77Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3539Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 243.7Event APEX 119.86Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 3175, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1014, 3175, 5454

Auto

52.4 21%

Teleop

134.0 54%

Endgame

61.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 2659, 3539

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10131, 2659, 3539

Auto

66.3 20%

Teleop

198.7 59%

Endgame

69.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score251.4pts

Blue projected score340.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.4
Score range: 180–412
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 394.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.4Season APEX820.9

52.4Auto66.3

134Teleop198.7

61.9Endgame69.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	62
teleop	59	257
endgame	20	101
foul	0	25
total	111	445

Result

Final score

111 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 122.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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