Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.72 – 311.84

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

331 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 610.8 ±8.7

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 90.29Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 42.29Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 113.14Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.7 ±8.7

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 121.71Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 73.71Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 116.42Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1259, 540, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1259, 540, 188

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

145.4 60%

Endgame

60.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 7451, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.8 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8749, 7451, 3512

Auto

65.5 22%

Teleop

166.1 55%

Endgame

69.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score245.7pts

Blue projected score311.8pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.1
Score range: 175–383
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 722 vs event baseline 397.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

610.8Season APEX671.7

38.9Auto65.5

145.4Teleop166.1

60Endgame69.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	84
teleop	184	247
endgame	87	55
foul	0	5
total	331	391

Result

Final score

331 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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