Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
296.54 – 353.4
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
197 – 628
Prediction correct · off by 187.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 682.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 199.4Event APEX -Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 117.43Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 113.14Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 829 ±8.7
Season APEX 210Event APEX -Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 192Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 95.43Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2199, 6121, 1710
59
/ 100 compatProjected
296.5 pts
~1.5 RP (championship)
Teams: 2199, 6121, 1710
Auto
70.4 24%
Teleop
165.3 57%
Endgame
52.3 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 401, 2056, 8005
65
/ 100 compatProjected
353.4 pts
~2.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 401, 2056, 8005
Auto
82.1 23%
Teleop
197.8 56%
Endgame
73.5 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.37
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score296.5pts
Blue projected score353.4pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 40%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -56.9
- Score range
- 226–424
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
682.5Season APEX829
50.6Auto62.3
132.3Teleop164.9
39.1Endgame60.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 82 | 151 |
| teleop | 93 | 339 |
| endgame | 22 | 123 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 197 | 628 |
Result
Final score
197 – 628
Prediction correct · off by 187.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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