Qualification · Qualification 122

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

635.83 – 333.78

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 851.9 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 133.29Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 332.11Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 170.43Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 761.5 ±10.7

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 118.24Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 177.73Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 37.81Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 2056, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

635.8 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 761, 2056, 6517

Auto

158.6 26%

Teleop

351.7 57%

Endgame

109.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11118, 6328, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.8 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 11118, 6328, 11024

Auto

94.2 29%

Teleop

176.5 54%

Endgame

58.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score635.8pts

Blue projected score333.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 302.1
Score range: 254–716
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 444.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

851.9Season APEX761.5

158.6Auto94.2

351.7Teleop176.5

109.7Endgame58.4

179Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	176	85
teleop	253	95
endgame	93	46
foul	50	5
total	572	231

Result

Final score

572 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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