Qualification · Qualification 121

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.01 – 244.97

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

378 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.5 ±11.4

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 106.3Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 95.33Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 79.38Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 599.1 ±9.9

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 73.95Rank 48Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 46.79Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 124.23Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 910, 7287, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 910, 7287, 2102

Auto

70.7 25%

Teleop

158.4 56%

Endgame

53.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1014, 2199, 188

/ 100 compat

Projected

245 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1014, 2199, 188

Auto

26.3 11%

Teleop

137.6 56%

Endgame

81.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score281pts

Blue projected score245pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36
Score range: 165–361
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 729 vs event baseline 445.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.5Season APEX599.1

70.7Auto26.3

158.4Teleop137.6

53Endgame81.9

130Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	48
teleop	186	202
endgame	98	96
foul	25	5
total	378	351

Result

Final score

378 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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