Qualification · Qualification 117

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.97 – 333.94

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

331 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 709.7 ±8.7

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 118.14Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 140.4Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 131.43Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±9.3

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 80.46Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 207.26Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4191IMC

Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 46.22Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4201, 8005, 5086

/ 100 compat

Projected

390 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4201, 8005, 5086

Auto

68.8 18%

Teleop

214.7 56%

Endgame

96.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1259, 8513, 4191

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1259, 8513, 4191

Auto

60.8 19%

Teleop

160.4 51%

Endgame

95.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score390pts

Blue projected score333.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 254–470
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 693 vs event baseline 444.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

709.7Season APEX604.1

68.8Auto60.8

214.7Teleop160.4

96.7Endgame95.1

122Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	64
teleop	186	184
endgame	99	94
foul	0	20
total	331	362

Result

Final score

331 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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