Qualification · Qualification 116

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

569.85 – 469.56

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

505 – 543

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 899 ±10.8

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 138.61Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 181.11Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3467Windham Windup

Season APEX 338.1Event APEX 250.13Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 786.6 ±9.3

1986Team Titanium

Season APEX 255.7Event APEX 155.28Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9785Alectrona

A+

Season APEX 330.4Event APEX 272.04Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 42.24Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4613, 1710, 3467

/ 100 compat

Projected

569.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 4613, 1710, 3467

Auto

107.7 19%

Teleop

318.9 57%

Endgame

132.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1986, 9785, 540

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.6 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1986, 9785, 540

Auto

100.2 22%

Teleop

297.6 64%

Endgame

63.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score569.9pts

Blue projected score469.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.3
Score range: 390–650
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 1048 vs event baseline 443.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

899Season APEX786.6

107.7Auto100.2

318.9Teleop297.6

132.4Endgame63.6

113Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	77
teleop	298	259
endgame	127	207
foul	0	0
total	505	543

Result

Final score

505 – 543

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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