Qualification · Qualification 114

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.64 – 431.06

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

323 – 523

Prediction missed · off by 102.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 687.5 ±8.8

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 191.42Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 191.86Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 53.36Rank 60Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.6 ±9.3

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 62.33Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 138.31Rank 55Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 230.42Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 5406, 5348

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 503, 5406, 5348

Auto

71.6 16%

Teleop

279.1 64%

Endgame

84.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 401, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.1 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9449, 401, 8749

Auto

94.2 22%

Teleop

218.5 51%

Endgame

117.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.86 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score436.6pts

Blue projected score431.1pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 351–517
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 442.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

687.5Season APEX645.6

71.6Auto94.2

279.1Teleop218.5

84.7Endgame117.2

132Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	132
teleop	176	293
endgame	95	98
foul	0	0
total	323	523

Result

Final score

323 – 523

Prediction missed · off by 102.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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