Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.05 – 493.64

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 729

Prediction correct · off by 195.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.2 ±10.5

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 146.41Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 24.22Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 112.42Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 828.7 ±9.3

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 99.94Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 179.22Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 214.48Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 10907, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 573, 10907, 11493

Auto

41.8 15%

Teleop

150.5 54%

Endgame

88.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 3641, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.6 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2486, 3641, 5000

Auto

92.2 19%

Teleop

253.8 51%

Endgame

149.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score493.6pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.6
Score range: 203–574
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 857 vs event baseline 443.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.2Season APEX828.7

41.8Auto92.2

150.5Teleop253.8

88.1Endgame149.1

110Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	132
teleop	61	398
endgame	9	199
foul	20	0
total	128	729

Result

Final score

128 – 729

Prediction correct · off by 195.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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