Qualification · Qualification 112

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

426.24 – 431.32

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

424 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 743.6 ±9.8

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 81.74Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 173.88Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 170.62Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.9 ±9.3

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 298.32Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 97.86Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 35.14Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2834, 238, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2834, 238, 10131

Auto

59.5 14%

Teleop

247.7 60%

Endgame

106.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1706, 3506, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.3 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 1706, 3506, 1287

Auto

76.3 18%

Teleop

234.0 56%

Endgame

106.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score426.2pts

Blue projected score431.3pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.1
Score range: 346–511
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 932 vs event baseline 443.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

743.6Season APEX681.9

59.5Auto76.3

247.7Teleop234

106.9Endgame106.8

127Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	126
teleop	207	271
endgame	153	111
foul	0	0
total	424	508

Result

Final score

424 – 508

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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