Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

437.59 – 317.41

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

454 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 731.6 ±10.5

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 183.12Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 73.73Rank 48Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6517So-Kno Robo

Season APEX 235.2Event APEX 180.74Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.4 ±9.8

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 123.04Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 27.39Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 166.98Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3015, 1014, 6517

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3015, 1014, 6517

Auto

62.2 15%

Teleop

254.2 59%

Endgame

111.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2220, 7451, 9692

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.4 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2220, 7451, 9692

Auto

59.7 19%

Teleop

162.4 52%

Endgame

89.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score437.6pts

Blue projected score317.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.2
Score range: 237–518
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 443.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

731.6Season APEX484.4

62.2Auto59.7

254.2Teleop162.4

111.9Endgame89.6

144Consistency184

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	37
teleop	267	209
endgame	123	93
foul	10	10
total	454	349

Result

Final score

454 – 349

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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