Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

441.63 – 381.52

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

481 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 676.9 ±9.3

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 129.32Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 102.6Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 209.71Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 702.2 ±9.3

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 156.79Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3297Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 211.6Event APEX 133.39Rank 53Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 91.34Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 761, 1625, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.6 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 761, 1625, 1296

Auto

83.5 19%

Teleop

198.1 46%

Endgame

149.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3512, 3297, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.5 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3512, 3297, 2102

Auto

38.3 10%

Teleop

219.9 58%

Endgame

119.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score441.6pts

Blue projected score381.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.1
Score range: 302–522
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 759 vs event baseline 442.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

676.9Season APEX702.2

83.5Auto38.3

198.1Teleop219.9

149.8Endgame119

157Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	71
teleop	229	83
endgame	115	124
foul	15	0
total	481	278

Result

Final score

481 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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