Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.03 – 336.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.6 ±9.3

5086Cadillac Connectors

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 130.72Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 57.39Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 212.92Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.1 ±9.8

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 111.5Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 136.38Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6639The Mechanical Minds

Season APEX 175.1Event APEX 88.57Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5086, 9449, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

401 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5086, 9449, 5000

Auto

93.3 23%

Teleop

197.7 49%

Endgame

115.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 4143, 6639

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 5454, 4143, 6639

Auto

110.9 32%

Teleop

181.6 53%

Endgame

50.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score401pts

Blue projected score336.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.6
Score range: 257–480
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 439.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.6Season APEX649.1

93.3Auto110.9

197.7Teleop181.6

115.9Endgame50.3

116Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	90
teleop	230	256
endgame	127	63
foul	10	0
total	435	409

Result

Final score

435 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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