Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

482.93 – 357.75

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 785 ±10.7

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 151.17Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 142.37Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5406Celt-X

Season APEX 280.2Event APEX 189.39Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 691.1 ±11.2

11118The Baybies

A+

Season APEX 308.5Event APEX 123.39Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 145.31Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 89.05Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 4613, 5406

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 573, 4613, 5406

Auto

69.6 14%

Teleop

279.5 58%

Endgame

131.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11118, 8005, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.8 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 11118, 8005, 2834

Auto

53.5 16%

Teleop

217.3 63%

Endgame

73.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score482.9pts

Blue projected score357.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.2
Score range: 279–562
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 833 vs event baseline 440.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

785Season APEX691.1

69.6Auto53.5

279.5Teleop217.3

131.1Endgame73.1

123Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	81
teleop	275	194
endgame	160	54
foul	5	0
total	504	329

Result

Final score

504 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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