Qualification · Qualification 103
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
253.46 – 440.11
9%91%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
438 – 521
Prediction correct · off by 132.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.1 ±11.2
Season APEX 337.8Event APEX 195.56Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 105.4Event APEX 37.01Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 20.89Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 801.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 93.42Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 216.6Event APEX 93.17Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 253.52Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8214, 4191, 1287
49
/ 100 compatProjected
253.5 pts
~1.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 8214, 4191, 1287
Auto
80.1 33%
Teleop
131.1 54%
Endgame
31.5 13%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 22%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2486, 6121, 8044
70
/ 100 compatProjected
440.1 pts
~2.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 2486, 6121, 8044
Auto
78.6 18%
Teleop
244.7 57%
Endgame
104.6 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 22%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score253.5pts
Blue projected score440.1pts
Red win probability9%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%
Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 39%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -186.6
- Score range
- 174–519
- Upset likelihood
- 9%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
593.1Season APEX801.7
80.1Auto78.6
131.1Teleop244.7
31.5Endgame104.6
139Consistency169
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 66 | 137 |
| teleop | 197 | 270 |
| endgame | 110 | 114 |
| foul | 65 | 0 |
| total | 438 | 521 |
Result
Final score
438 – 521
Prediction correct · off by 132.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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