Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

448.58 – 434.66

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

312 – 647

Prediction missed · off by 174.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.3 ±9.5

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 202.92Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 207.68Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 37.98Rank 69Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 734.2 ±9.3

4174Mustang Robotics

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 159.93Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 18.58Rank 68Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 256.15Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 503, 10907

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.6 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3641, 503, 10907

Auto

78.2 17%

Teleop

245.3 54%

Endgame

127.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4174, 540, 1732

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.7 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4174, 540, 1732

Auto

96.6 22%

Teleop

219.8 51%

Endgame

117.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score448.6pts

Blue projected score434.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.9
Score range: 356–528
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 959 vs event baseline 439.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.3Season APEX734.2

78.2Auto96.6

245.3Teleop219.8

127.2Endgame117.4

119Consistency219

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	135
teleop	200	345
endgame	34	167
foul	0	0
total	312	647

Result

Final score

312 – 647

Prediction missed · off by 174.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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