Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.36 – 297.64

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

553 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 776.4 ±8.7

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 125.16Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

188Blizzard

Season APEX 215.8Event APEX 117.49Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11270Nova

Season APEX 261.8Event APEX 171.71Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.3 ±9.3

5348Charger Robotics

Season APEX 173.4Event APEX 60.3Rank 60Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 187.3Rank 12Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 50.04Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2659, 188, 11270

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.4 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2659, 188, 11270

Auto

57.3 14%

Teleop

256.0 62%

Endgame

100.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5348, 238, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5348, 238, 11024

Auto

29.5 10%

Teleop

176.8 61%

Endgame

81.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score414.4pts

Blue projected score297.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.7
Score range: 219–493
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 769 vs event baseline 439.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

776.4Season APEX622.3

57.3Auto29.5

256Teleop176.8

100.5Endgame81.5

117Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	18
teleop	327	143
endgame	145	45
foul	0	10
total	553	216

Result

Final score

553 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

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