Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

559.75 – 401.33

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

740 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 130 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 855.5 ±9.8

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 125.25Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 280.35Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 154.15Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 692.9 ±9.3

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 109.27Rank 37Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 218.51Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1259Paradigm Shift

Season APEX 194.5Event APEX 73.55Rank 63Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3035, 1706, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.8 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3035, 1706, 10131

Auto

93.0 17%

Teleop

322.4 57%

Endgame

147.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 8749, 1259

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 11493, 8749, 1259

Auto

83.9 21%

Teleop

209.7 53%

Endgame

102.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.85 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score559.8pts

Blue projected score401.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.4
Score range: 322–639
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1221 vs event baseline 438.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

855.5Season APEX692.9

93Auto83.9

322.4Teleop209.7

147Endgame102.5

129Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	79
teleop	420	220
endgame	204	177
foul	5	5
total	740	481

Result

Final score

740 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 130 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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