Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

446.79 – 409.81

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

426 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 768.8 ±9.3

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 211.85Rank 11Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 124.98Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 109.96Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 747.6 ±9.3

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 80.97Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 176.82Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 152.02Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 2486, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.8 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 8749, 2486, 4201

Auto

86.3 20%

Teleop

231.4 52%

Endgame

123.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 1710, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.8 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 3175, 1710, 3512

Auto

78.6 20%

Teleop

229.3 57%

Endgame

92.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score446.8pts

Blue projected score409.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37
Score range: 327–530
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 822 vs event baseline 461.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

768.8Season APEX747.6

86.3Auto78.6

231.4Teleop229.3

123.4Endgame92.6

144Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	91
teleop	198	236
endgame	160	69
foul	25	0
total	426	396

Result

Final score

426 – 396

Prediction correct · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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