Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

749.3 – 696.63

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

651 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 196.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 949.2 ±9.8

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 173.13Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 308.04Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 268.13Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1000.3 ±8.7

3506YETI Robotics

Season APEX 204.4Event APEX 105.7Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 324.4Rank 1Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6329The Bucks' Wrath

Season APEX 391.8Event APEX 266.53Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 1706, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

749.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4143, 1706, 581

Auto

166.1 22%

Teleop

402.7 54%

Endgame

179.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3506, 2056, 6329

/ 100 compat

Projected

696.6 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3506, 2056, 6329

Auto

178.7 26%

Teleop

381.0 56%

Endgame

125.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score749.3pts

Blue projected score696.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 614–832
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 1053 vs event baseline 459.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

949.2Season APEX1000.3

166.1Auto178.7

402.7Teleop381

179.3Endgame125.5

106Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	173	106
teleop	351	201
endgame	117	75
foul	10	20
total	651	402

Result

Final score

651 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 196.5 pts

Match videos

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