Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.22 – 62.08

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 104 ±16.2

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 11.89Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 22.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -3.81Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±15.8

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 27.65Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 31.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 3.28Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2441, 6704, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2441, 6704, 9012

Auto

10.6 33%

Teleop

7.0 22%

Endgame

14.6 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3008, 3881, 2477

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 3881, 2477

Auto

15.2 24%

Teleop

30.5 48%

Endgame

18.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.2pts

Blue projected score62.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.9
Score range: 9–83
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

104Season APEX191

10.6Auto15.2

7Teleop30.5

14.6Endgame18.3

30Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	1
teleop	31	12
endgame	12	19
foul	0	0
total	62	32

Result

Final score

62 – 32

Prediction missed · off by 30.9 pts

Match videos

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