Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.31 – 23.34

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±11.9

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 141.56Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 10.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 50.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 104 ±16.2

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 10.12Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 19.8Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -6.58Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 8871, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 8871, 4270

Auto

22.5 12%

Teleop

121.9 62%

Endgame

50.8 26%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2441, 6704, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2441, 6704, 9012

Auto

9.3 35%

Teleop

4.3 16%

Endgame

12.6 48%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.3pts

Blue projected score23.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179
Score range: 1–224
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.2Season APEX104

22.5Auto9.3

121.9Teleop4.3

50.8Endgame12.6

0Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	150	16
endgame	89	23
foul	0	0
total	265	56

Result

Final score

265 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Match videos

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