Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.37 – 156.13

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±11.9

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 23.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 155.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 64Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±11.1

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 24.02Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 60.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 71.8Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8871, 6497, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 6497, 4270

Auto

30.7 13%

Teleop

142.0 60%

Endgame

64.0 27%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2465, 2438, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2465, 2438, 8005

Auto

32.7 22%

Teleop

82.9 56%

Endgame

33.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score243.4pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.2
Score range: 134–265
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 123.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.2Season APEX438.7

30.7Auto32.7

142Teleop82.9

64Endgame33.7

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	51
teleop	146	84
endgame	57	5
foul	25	0
total	296	140

Result

Final score

296 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 34.4 pts

Match videos

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