Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
141.35 – 160.54
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
116 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±13.6
Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 16.34Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82
Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 67.99Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 57.02Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±11.1
Season APEX 90Event APEX 25.47Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 61.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 73.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2896, 3882, 2443
69
/ 100 compatProjected
141.4 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 2896, 3882, 2443
Auto
28.3 21%
Teleop
69.8 53%
Endgame
34.4 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2465, 2438, 8005
73
/ 100 compatProjected
160.5 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 2465, 2438, 8005
Auto
32.0 21%
Teleop
88.1 57%
Endgame
33.3 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score141.4pts
Blue projected score160.5pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -19.2
- Score range
- 119–183
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
343.6Season APEX438.7
28.3Auto32
69.8Teleop88.1
34.4Endgame33.3
15Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 37 |
| teleop | 43 | 45 |
| endgame | 38 | 37 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 116 | 124 |
Result
Final score
116 – 124
Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts
Match videos
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