Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.87 – 89.82

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±13.6

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 14.12Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 65.57Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 54.18Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.5 ±17.3

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 37.63Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 20.38Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 31.81Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2896, 3882, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2896, 3882, 2443

Auto

27.4 22%

Teleop

63.4 51%

Endgame

32.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11177, 3721, 11229

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11177, 3721, 11229

Auto

18.7 21%

Teleop

41.5 47%

Endgame

27.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 68–156
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.6Season APEX126.5

27.4Auto18.7

63.4Teleop41.5

32.9Endgame27.5

12Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	13
teleop	104	26
endgame	46	36
foul	0	5
total	184	80

Result

Final score

184 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Match videos

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