Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.07 – 69.8

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 61.5 ±17.4

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 0.57Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 36.86Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -14.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±14.1

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 62.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 6.37Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 0.57Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9715, 8585, 8569

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9715, 8585, 8569

Auto

6.6 29%

Teleop

7.2 31%

Endgame

9.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6497, 6704, 2896

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 6704, 2896

Auto

15.6 22%

Teleop

33.5 48%

Endgame

20.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score23.1pts

Blue projected score69.8pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.7
Score range: 1–92
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 124.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

61.5Season APEX323.6

6.6Auto15.6

7.2Teleop33.5

9.1Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	25
teleop	10	110
endgame	0	62
foul	5	0
total	19	197

Result

Final score

19 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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