Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.59 – 72.33

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.4 ±17.3

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 42.3Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 46.29Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±16.4

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 46.29Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 42.3Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX -16.26Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3881, 2445, 2441

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3881, 2445, 2441

Auto

20.5 17%

Teleop

58.4 49%

Endgame

41.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3880, 11177, 2348

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 11177, 2348

Auto

14.0 19%

Teleop

31.0 43%

Endgame

27.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.3
Score range: 48–149
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.4Season APEX188.3

20.5Auto14

58.4Teleop31

41.3Endgame27.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	0
teleop	52	41
endgame	16	25
foul	0	0
total	91	66

Result

Final score

91 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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