Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.48 – 194.84

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.9 ±15

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 46.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 30.47Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -2.51Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±15.4

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 31.66Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 148.56Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 14.62Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 11229, 2477

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 11229, 2477

Auto

4.9 7%

Teleop

40.4 57%

Endgame

26.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7724, 6497, 9715

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7724, 6497, 9715

Auto

30.0 17%

Teleop

99.4 55%

Endgame

52.0 29%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.5pts

Blue projected score194.8pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.4
Score range: 53–216
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.9Season APEX235.4

4.9Auto30

40.4Teleop99.4

26Endgame52

30Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	20
teleop	90	52
endgame	14	45
foul	5	0
total	140	117

Result

Final score

140 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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