Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.87 – 84.99

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±12.7

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 21.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 61.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 181.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.7 ±16.4

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 1.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 59.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 23.94Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9019, 4270, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9019, 4270, 359

Auto

49.2 19%

Teleop

145.2 57%

Endgame

62.2 24%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2477, 2438, 7724

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2477, 2438, 7724

Auto

15.0 18%

Teleop

40.8 50%

Endgame

25.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.9pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.9
Score range: 62–288
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 424 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.5Season APEX187.7

49.2Auto15

145.2Teleop40.8

62.2Endgame25.8

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	8
teleop	175	70
endgame	63	54
foul	0	0
total	292	132

Result

Final score

292 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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