Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.82 – 83.28

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±14.1

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 58.76Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 20.07Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 11.99Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.9 ±16.3

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 21.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 0.51Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 60.98Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2443, 6704, 2441

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2443, 6704, 2441

Auto

14.7 19%

Teleop

35.7 46%

Endgame

27.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6191, 8585, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6191, 8585, 8005

Auto

17.7 21%

Teleop

41.1 48%

Endgame

26.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.8pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.5
Score range: 62–112
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.8Season APEX276.9

14.7Auto17.7

35.7Teleop41.1

27.3Endgame26.4

12Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	22
teleop	43	61
endgame	27	26
foul	0	0
total	90	109

Result

Final score

90 – 109

Prediction missed · off by 13.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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