Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.71 – 50.76

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 208.8 ±16.4

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 5.45Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 54.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 43.03Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213 ±15.2

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 9.05Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 32.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 9.17Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2348, 2438, 2853

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2348, 2438, 2853

Auto

13.5 15%

Teleop

54.9 60%

Endgame

23.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8871, 3881, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 3881, 3880

Auto

20.5 43%

Teleop

16.1 34%

Endgame

11.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score50.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 30–124
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

208.8Season APEX213

13.5Auto20.5

54.9Teleop16.1

23.4Endgame11.4

1Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	40	24
endgame	28	31
foul	0	0
total	85	70

Result

Final score

85 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 18.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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