Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.1 – 77.05

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 80.3 ±17.3

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -4.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 42.41Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 26.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±15.8

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -1.44Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 65.52Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 12.97Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9012, 11177, 3721

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9012, 11177, 3721

Auto

9.7 14%

Teleop

34.8 52%

Endgame

22.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8569, 3882, 2896

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8569, 3882, 2896

Auto

25.3 36%

Teleop

33.3 47%

Endgame

12.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.1pts

Blue projected score77.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 43–98
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

80.3Season APEX213.2

9.7Auto25.3

34.8Teleop33.3

22.6Endgame12.5

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	41
teleop	16	59
endgame	27	22
foul	0	0
total	57	122

Result

Final score

57 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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