Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.74 – 112.34

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.3 ±14.5

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 51.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 8.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 23.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.2 ±12.9

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 52.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 54.44Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 5.54Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4270, 2348, 6704

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4270, 2348, 6704

Auto

13.2 16%

Teleop

47.7 57%

Endgame

22.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2438, 2443, 8871

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2438, 2443, 8871

Auto

12.9 12%

Teleop

65.0 61%

Endgame

28.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score112.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 63–133
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.3Season APEX322.2

13.2Auto12.9

47.7Teleop65

22.1Endgame28.1

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	20
teleop	32	62
endgame	8	12
foul	0	50
total	40	144

Result

Final score

40 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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