Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.38 – 105.75

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 106 ±18.5

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 28.67Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 32.15Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 19.56Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.9 ±15

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 35.19Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 17.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 52.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11229, 7724, 6191

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11229, 7724, 6191

Auto

20.7 27%

Teleop

35.0 46%

Endgame

20.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11177, 3721, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11177, 3721, 8005

Auto

18.0 17%

Teleop

45.6 42%

Endgame

44.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.4pts

Blue projected score105.8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.4
Score range: 59–127
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

106Season APEX292.9

20.7Auto18

35Teleop45.6

20.7Endgame44.8

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	29
teleop	13	98
endgame	24	58
foul	15	0
total	87	185

Result

Final score

87 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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