Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.21 – 99.39

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±12.9

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 13.32Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 132.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 9.36Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240 ±15.8

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 37.85Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -4.13Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 65.67Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9715, 11019, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9715, 11019, 3880

Auto

21.1 15%

Teleop

80.0 58%

Endgame

37.4 27%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2445, 2477, 3882

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2445, 2477, 3882

Auto

17.5 17%

Teleop

52.4 50%

Endgame

34.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.2pts

Blue projected score99.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.8
Score range: 78–176
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.1Season APEX240

21.1Auto17.5

80Teleop52.4

37.4Endgame34.2

58Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	25
teleop	100	49
endgame	41	17
foul	0	5
total	168	96

Result

Final score

168 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 8.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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