Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.77 – 193.44

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±13.6

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 144.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 28.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 31.15Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.3 ±15.4

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 189.96Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 4.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX -0.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6497, 3881, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6497, 3881, 3008

Auto

36.1 18%

Teleop

108.8 56%

Endgame

50.3 26%

Strengths

· 6497 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 359, 8585, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 8585, 9012

Auto

35.9 18%

Teleop

104.9 53%

Endgame

58.2 29%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score203.8pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 172–225
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.5Season APEX295.3

36.1Auto35.9

108.8Teleop104.9

50.3Endgame58.2

46Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	40
teleop	154	78
endgame	48	15
foul	5	5
total	251	138

Result

Final score

251 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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