Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.94 – 66.77

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.5 ±16

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 130.51Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -5.61Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 28.04Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±15.4

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 4.79Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 17.11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 44.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 8569, 7724

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 8569, 7724

Auto

26.1 18%

Teleop

80.5 54%

Endgame

41.3 28%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9715, 9019, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9715, 9019, 2443

Auto

13.2 21%

Teleop

37.6 59%

Endgame

12.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.9pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.2
Score range: 46–174
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.5Season APEX188.6

26.1Auto13.2

80.5Teleop37.6

41.3Endgame12.9

12Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	8
teleop	94	71
endgame	34	22
foul	35	75
total	194	176

Result

Final score

194 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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