Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.67 – 47.07

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.9 ±10.7

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 193.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 54.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 67.41Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±16.4

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 3.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 5.85Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 37.7Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 2438, 3882

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 2438, 3882

Auto

63.6 20%

Teleop

173.0 54%

Endgame

81.0 26%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8585, 3880, 2445

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8585, 3880, 2445

Auto

14.5 34%

Teleop

16.1 38%

Endgame

12.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score315.7pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 268.6
Score range: 26–337
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.9Season APEX205.9

63.6Auto14.5

173Teleop16.1

81Endgame12.1

10Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	0
teleop	153	56
endgame	83	25
foul	0	0
total	296	81

Result

Final score

296 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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