Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.2 – 189.48

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282 ±14.1

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 48.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 20.11Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 9.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.5 ±13.1

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 17.21Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 129.04Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 43.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2853, 2465, 3880

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2853, 2465, 3880

Auto

29.9 37%

Teleop

37.8 47%

Endgame

13.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3721, 11019, 2443

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3721, 11019, 2443

Auto

27.0 15%

Teleop

96.9 54%

Endgame

54.6 31%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.2pts

Blue projected score189.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.3
Score range: 57–210
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 261 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282Season APEX387.5

29.9Auto27

37.8Teleop96.9

13Endgame54.6

30Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	9	125
endgame	10	54
foul	20	0
total	56	205

Result

Final score

56 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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