Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.35 – 145.44

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.5 ±15.1

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 61.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 14.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 6.14Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.5 ±14.8

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 10.1Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 74.71Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 60.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8005, 2348, 9715

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 2348, 9715

Auto

14.8 19%

Teleop

33.5 44%

Endgame

28.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8585, 3882, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8585, 3882, 2438

Auto

30.7 21%

Teleop

88.2 59%

Endgame

29.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score81.4pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.1
Score range: 60–166
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.5Season APEX316.5

14.8Auto30.7

33.5Teleop88.2

28.5Endgame29.8

37Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	22	50
endgame	17	14
foul	0	0
total	49	85

Result

Final score

49 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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