Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.15 – 113.88

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±16.2

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 19.39Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -10.03Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 34.79Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±15

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 29.12Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 50.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 34Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6704, 8569, 2445

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6704, 8569, 2445

Auto

17.3 38%

Teleop

13.9 30%

Endgame

14.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11177, 4270, 3881

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11177, 4270, 3881

Auto

8.8 8%

Teleop

64.9 62%

Endgame

31.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score113.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.7
Score range: 23–135
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.1Season APEX316

17.3Auto8.8

13.9Teleop64.9

14.8Endgame31

7Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	36	67
endgame	16	28
foul	15	5
total	82	119

Result

Final score

82 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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