Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.15 – 39.23

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 103.6 ±17.9

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 4.11Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 35.53Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 21.51Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.4 ±15.2

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -2.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 8.99Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 32.36Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2477, 11229, 9019

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2477, 11229, 9019

Auto

5.5 10%

Teleop

30.3 53%

Endgame

21.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8871, 2441, 3008

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8871, 2441, 3008

Auto

10.1 21%

Teleop

31.8 67%

Endgame

5.6 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.2pts

Blue projected score39.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.9
Score range: 18–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

103.6Season APEX145.4

5.5Auto10.1

30.3Teleop31.8

21Endgame5.6

28Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	8	38
endgame	16	14
foul	0	0
total	37	66

Result

Final score

37 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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