Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.47 – 55.18

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.2 ±17.3

11177HCSH Leopard Cat

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 27.4Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 52.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8569Zenith Polaris

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -6.77Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 93.4 ±16.8

3721Charger Robotics

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 15.62Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2445RoboKAP

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 36.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9715Tsinelas'

Season APEX 7Event APEX 3.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11177, 2853, 8569

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11177, 2853, 8569

Auto

4.7 6%

Teleop

40.4 55%

Endgame

28.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3721, 2445, 9715

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3721, 2445, 9715

Auto

15.8 30%

Teleop

16.0 30%

Endgame

20.9 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73.5pts

Blue projected score55.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.3
Score range: 34–94
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.2Season APEX93.4

4.7Auto15.8

40.4Teleop16

28.7Endgame20.9

33Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	53	35
endgame	16	15
foul	0	5
total	80	71

Result

Final score

80 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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