Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.21 – 98.62

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.4 ±13.9

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 128.7Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 56.06Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 3.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160 ±17.3

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 31Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2853Hot Spot Robotics

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 39.22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 28.4Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 2443, 8585

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 2443, 8585

Auto

19.6 11%

Teleop

109.5 63%

Endgame

45.2 26%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11229, 2853, 3881

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11229, 2853, 3881

Auto

24.1 28%

Teleop

38.7 45%

Endgame

23.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.2pts

Blue projected score98.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.6
Score range: 76–211
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 128.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.4Season APEX160

19.6Auto24.1

109.5Teleop38.7

45.2Endgame23.9

20Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	70	53
endgame	41	36
foul	0	15
total	129	126

Result

Final score

129 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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