Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.55 – 92.29

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±14.8

3880Tiki Techs

Season APEX 132.6Event APEX 2.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3882Lunas

Season APEX 157.9Event APEX 69.33Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6191RoboKryptonite

Season APEX 37.2Event APEX 3.81Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±16.4

3881WHEA Sharkbots

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 32.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7724Molokai Robotics

Season APEX 20.3Event APEX 32.73Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2465KauaiBots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 26.81Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3880, 3882, 6191

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3880, 3882, 6191

Auto

30.5 39%

Teleop

40.6 52%

Endgame

7.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3881, 7724, 2465

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3881, 7724, 2465

Auto

40.6 45%

Teleop

35.5 39%

Endgame

13.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.6pts

Blue projected score92.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.7
Score range: 55–113
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.7Season APEX162.4

30.5Auto40.6

40.6Teleop35.5

7Endgame13.9

68Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	20
teleop	61	20
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	131	64

Result

Final score

131 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 41.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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