Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.54 – 190.39

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

115 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±13.6

3008Team Magma

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 26.29Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2443Blue Thunder

Season APEX 160.1Event APEX 34.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2477Marauder Rascals

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -2.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.6 ±15.4

2441Spartechs

Season APEX 11.8Event APEX 2.76Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 176.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2348Mechahunes

Season APEX 15.6Event APEX 11.36Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3008, 2443, 2477

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3008, 2443, 2477

Auto

4.4 7%

Teleop

31.0 51%

Endgame

25.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2441, 359, 2348

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2441, 359, 2348

Auto

41.4 22%

Teleop

88.1 46%

Endgame

63.0 33%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.5pts

Blue projected score190.4pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.8
Score range: 38–211
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299Season APEX295.6

4.4Auto41.4

31Teleop88.1

25.4Endgame63

27Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	48
teleop	78	132
endgame	30	65
foul	0	0
total	115	245

Result

Final score

115 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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