Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.07 – 143.51

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446.1 ±13.1

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 116.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6497Pymble P-Platers

Season APEX 208.1Event APEX 108.09Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11229Open Circuit

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 23.49Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.2 ±13.2

2896MechaMonarchs

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 22.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 54.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2438'Iobotics

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 66.02Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 6497, 11229

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11019, 6497, 11229

Auto

28.0 11%

Teleop

146.2 58%

Endgame

76.1 30%

Strengths

· 11019 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2896, 4270, 2438

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2896, 4270, 2438

Auto

15.3 11%

Teleop

88.7 62%

Endgame

39.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.1pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.6
Score range: 124–268
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 111.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446.1Season APEX383.2

28Auto15.3

146.2Teleop88.7

76.1Endgame39.8

18Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	15
teleop	174	92
endgame	77	10
foul	65	15
total	367	132

Result

Final score

367 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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