Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.74 – 87.47

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143 ±16.3

8585Bombax Leopard

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 4.2Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6704Mid Pacific Owls Robotics

Season APEX 89.9Event APEX 18.75Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8871Saber Dynamics

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX -7.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.7 ±15.7

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 60.98Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9019Ko'olaupoko

Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 23.5Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9012Team Waffles

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX 2.99Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8585, 6704, 8871

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8585, 6704, 8871

Auto

7.8 47%

Teleop

0.6 4%

Endgame

8.3 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 9019, 9012

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 9019, 9012

Auto

15.3 18%

Teleop

48.5 58%

Endgame

19.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score15.7pts

Blue projected score87.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: -4–107
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143Season APEX238.7

7.8Auto15.3

0.6Teleop48.5

8.3Endgame19.9

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	52	32
endgame	6	28
foul	0	0
total	74	75

Result

Final score

74 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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